Producers eye Mother Nature warily as spring approaches

Drought-struck regions bracing for another tough year

By Sheri Monk

Producers are nervously watching forecasts, pig spleens and fortune tellers for reassurance that enough moisture is coming to protect crops and livestock this year.

The Canadian Drought Outlook releases monthly drought forecasting and current conditions across the country, with the most recent data being from January 31. Since then, there has been some precipitation in the form of snow, but many are worried it will not be enough.

It's only March, but it’s also already March.

~ Jeremy Welter, Agricultural Producers Association of Saskatchewan

“It's only March, but it’s also already March. Nobody has ever lost a crop in March, but it’s also March coming off of an abnormally dry fall. The vast majority of the province is sitting in a drought situation and it doesn’t look like we are going to have a lot more moisture coming in the spring for planting,” says Jeremy Welter, a producer in the RM of Mariposa and board member with the Agricultural Producers Association of Saskatchewan. “There is definitely, at minimum, a level of concern or apprehension around this coming year.”

A failed crop near Leader, Saskatchewan photographed last year. PHOTO BY SHERI MONK

Kindersley falls in the D3 category of extreme drought. Oyen is in the worst category, D4, or exceptional drought. Further south, Medicine Hat and Maple Creek are both classified D2, as being in a severe drought. But what will happen later this year? The forecasting by the Canadian Drought Outlook looks forward one month at a time, so current forecasting is for what drought conditions were expected to be by the end of February. Oyen was expected to improve slightly, Medicine Hat was anticipated to come out of drought conditions entirely, and Kindersley and Maple Creek were not forecast to change at all.

In 2023, more than 50 rural municipalities would go on to declare disaster in Saskatchewan in 2023 thanks to poor yields and terrible conditions, but Welter believes many municipalities simply didn’t bother declaring at all.

“We declared in 2021 and we got a very nice letter to the municipality from our ag minister saying that he understood it was challenging when it was dry. There is no real benefit to the individual producer if a municipality does declare an agricultural disaster,” said Welter. “A lot of municipalities did declare with the hope/expectation that something would be done either from the province or the feds.”

As many may recall, 2023 wasn’t just a dry year – it was a weird weather year entirely. Blowing snow in the Kindersley area in January recorded more than 120 hours with less than one kilometre of visibility. A massive snow storm in April was followed by rising temperatures that hit 30ºC by early May – and that’s when everything started to burn. Seeding was delayed with most producers running behind thanks to the late season snow and cold. But followed rapidly by intense and early heat, many crops in the southwest and southcentral regions were crippled from the outset as what little moisture remained was quickly lost.

Indeed, the living skies became smoldering skies with people across the province dealing with increased asthma and breathing problems as the fires continued. When it was all done, 1.9 million hectares of land had burned, beating the 1.8 million hectare record from 2015. While the fires were tragic and devastating, they may potentially have benefitted the crops growing in their shadows.

“Last year could have been far worse. I think that because our summer was warm but not baking hot, I think that saved a lot of us. And I hate to say it, but I think there is something to be said for everything being on fire because all of that fire produced smoke, and all of that smoke provides some shade for the crops. It does make a difference and I certainly think it made a difference last year shading the crops to some extent from what could have potentially been a lot hotter,” said Welter.

How much would enough?

“It’s easy to look at the snowfall optimistically. From a realistic point of view, this snowfall – if every ounce of moisture could be absorbed – might be an inch of water. It sounds like a lot but it isn’t. It’s like spitting on someone that’s dying of thirst. We need a lot more. We probably need six inches over April to replenish what we lost last year, let alone the moisture that’s been mined out of the soil the last three years,” Welter said, adding that no one wants those six inches all at once.

Chart depicting drought conditions as of January 31, 2024 by the Canadian Drought OUTLOOK

Drought forecasting issued by the Candian Drought Outlook current to the end of February. OUTLOOK

Last spring, many producers were also insulated by better subsoil moisture coming into the growing season.

“We lucked out with some very timely rains, but we also were very lucky with the subsoil moisture we had and which I question whether we will see this year. It is only the beginning of March – anything could happen in the next four to six weeks,” Welter said.

Talk on coffee row would indicate increasing numbers of producers are taking advantage of crop insurance programs, though maintain they’re still underutilized.

“My understanding is that 65 -70 per cent of the province is covered by crop insurance. Over the last two or three years, I think there are more people looking at forage rainfall insurance. I’ve talked to a number of different producers from around the province and if it wasn’t for crop insurance, we would not be here. There are always improvements that could be made to the program, but crop insurance has made sure we can maintain farming. There’s definitely value in the program.”

Farmers are also worrying about lacklustre markets, while still paying higher prices for inputs.

“They keep talking about how much supply there is – I don’t know where it is and I can’t see how that’s accurate. Indications are that the world is currently sitting on… I don’t want to say an oversupply, but a good cushion of all the crops right now,” Welter said.

The tea on beef

“We just received some snow the other day so at least we’ve got potential now to get some run-off and fill some dugouts,” says Joleen Shea, district seven’s director for the Saskatchewan Cattlemen’s Association. “But when it comes to actual grass and producing the feed we need, we’re going to need some spring rains. There’s no subsoil moisture and the snow might get the grass started, but we need rain to keep things going throughout the year.”

Nothing is sitting in excellent shape right now. There’s just been too many dry years in a row.

~ Joleen Shea, Saskatchewan Cattlemen’s Association

Joleen Shea

Shea ranches east of Kindersley, in the very heart of the worst of the drought scenario. This winter, Mother Nature was on one hand kind, but on the other cruel. The mild temperatures helped conserve feed, but the lack of precipitation isn’t setting producers up for summer success.

“We’ve had a fairly nice winter really, so that’s definitely helped with feeding. Until the last two weeks or so, we hardly had any snow so that helped not having to put out as much straw to keep the cows warm,” Shea said. “We probably actually had an ideal winter given what most people’s feed situation was going in because I think everybody was running a little bit tight.”

Last spring, the late snow delayed getting cows out to pasture, but this year producers may hold them as long as they can at home to allow the grass to recover a little more from last year.

“There was very little grass left. The last few years for us anyway it has been probably May 20th that we’ve been going out and it’ll be at least that this year, if not maybe even the beginning of June. It will all depend on what the weather conditions are in April and May. We’ll feed them as long as we can in the yard to give those pastures as good of a start as we can allow. Nothing is sitting in excellent shape right now. There’s just been too many dry years in a row.”

The cattle inventory is showing the stress cracks of the industry with significant drops in numbers across the country.

“We have already seen that in the U.S. – I think they have the lowest numbers since the 1960s. We have seen them suffer through the same drought we’re suffering from. I think in Canada they’re saying (we have) the smallest cow herd since 1989. We’re still in the contraction phase it seems like, and it’s not going to change until the drought breaks,” Shea said.

While the weather isn’t always predictable, the cattle markets over time certainly are. Low inventory generally means high prices for the cow-calf sector, which is perhaps the only silver lining of the drought.

“We’ve never sold animals for more,” Shea said. “We have record prices right now, but there are also record expenses. It should be spurring on expansion, but we just haven’t seen that. You can’t expand your herd until you can feed them.”